10万円からはじめるエアドロ活動 - Vol.3 涙の全撤退と、「冬」の生存戦略

Hello! I have 8 years of experience in crypto assets, yet I still stare blankly at "meme coins" with absolutely no understanding of them. I’m a self-proclaimed "old-school" (hardliner?) investor who has only ever bought $MONA and $DOGE. I'm also the kind of person who dives into Discords with fewer than 100 people to get an OG role, only to quit halfway through because it gets too tedious.

This is the third installment of "Airdrop Life Starting with 100,000 Yen." Today, we start abruptly with an Important Report (also known as a regret).

Let me give you the conclusion first. I have withdrawn all funds deposited in Almanak!

You might think, "Eh, did you give up already?" but the reason is simple. I thought, "A buying opportunity for Bitcoin might be coming," and I sensed the scent of a bearish market. Weighing the risks of DeFi operations during a downturn against securing liquidity to jump on the next opportunity, I chose a "Courageous Retreat."

The final results of this operation are as follows:

• USDC: 605 → 604.65 (Slight decrease...!)
• Points: 0 → 404 My dollar balance decreased slightly due to fees, but I landed with about 400 points gained. It's not quite a "stop-loss," but considering the time the funds were locked up, it’s more like I decided to "cut bait."

However, let me confess honestly. If I had allocated everything to YT (Yield Tokens), I would have been rolling in it with a 15% interest rate plus a massive amount of points over these two weeks...

There were nights I soaked my pillow with tears, but regret won't generate a single yen. Let's pull ourselves together and move on. While I want to rake in points on platforms like EdgeX, I am waiting for trading opportunities. So, this time, I will introduce what I do during this kind of market!

So, why did I think "a Bitcoin buying opportunity is coming" and switch to defense? It's because the atmosphere of the entire market has changed, and I feel in my bones that we have entered a correction phase.

Airdrop activity is "the act of converting the future value of funds and time into unknown tokens." In other words, now is the time to lie low. In a bull market, it's a state where "whatever you buy goes up," but that doesn't hold true when the market cools down.

Actions taken during this period make a huge difference in the next bubble. This time, under the theme "What Airdrop Hunters Can Do in a Bear Market," I will share my survival strategy.

1. "Decluttering" the Portfolio and "Returning to Kings"

Just as I pulled funds from Almanak and moved to $USDC, the standard move is to first "reduce risk and prepare for the next chance."

In a downtrend, "incidents" that were invisible during the hype phase—like DePegs or project closures—are prone to happen. Looking at past examples (e.g., Blast), it takes time for a token that once had hype to shine again. Let's be ruthless and organize.

• Clean up weak alts & mystery coins: Even if you are sitting on unrealized losses, boldly "declutter" projects with slim hopes of recovery. Return to "Royal Assets" like USDC, USDT, or BTC/ETH.
• Reloading "Principal": Holding liquidity (cash power) so you can move on the next "stimulus check" project or a crash-induced bargain sale is the strongest move for mental stability. for spot traders, hedging with EdgeX or bfUSD to steadily earn Funding Rates and points is also a good strategy.

2. Focus on "Muddy" Work with Zero Risk

The time when you don't want to expose funds to risk is the perfect chance to use your time.

• Touching Testnets: Since you play with dummy tokens without using your own assets, financial risk is zero. It can lead to airdrop eligibility upon mainnet launch. (Honestly, it's hard to connect directly to profit and the work is plain, so it might be "asceticism" for light users...)
• Completely Free Tasks: Disseminating info on Galxe or Zealy, InfoFi, or acquiring roles on Discord. Monad's Discord activity and airdrops for X (Twitter) posts are fresh in our memories. Also, focusing on InfoFi, like how Wallchain NFTs skyrocketed, is a valid move. It's a "kill two birds with one stone" strategy where you gain knowledge while aiming for airdrops.

3. "Resume Building" When Gas Fees are Low

When the market cools, gas fees on the Ethereum mainnet and others become dirt cheap. Take advantage of this.

• Building Chain History: This is your chance to pass transactions and bridges that usually cost dollars for pennies. It is not uncommon for a history of "used XX times in the past" to become a criterion for future airdrops. Whether Aerodome hints at entering Ethereum or you are participating in Jupiter's LFG LaunchPad, enriching your "On-chain Resume" is as important as job hunting.

From here, I will guide you into the world of "slightly maniacal information gathering" that I usually do. Let's reduce the time spent looking at prices and increase the time spent looking at technology and mechanisms.

Starting with PropAMM introduced last time, seeds of the next trend are quietly being born in areas like privacy coins ($ZEC, $DASH), prediction markets (Kalshi, Opinion), stablecoins, and payments.

• Is development alive?: Projects with active Github updates are trustworthy even if the price drops.
• Look at primary information (the field): Read the white papers.
• Monitor on-chain data: Perp volume, Open Interest (OI), and TVL fluctuations do not lie.

For example, trends like "After Pump.fun listing is confirmed, Raydium follows late" can be played like a game of rock-paper-scissors where you move second if you know the mechanism.

🕵️‍♂️ The Seven Tools: On-Chain Data

First is DefiLlama. This is an essential tool. If you can master Dune Analytics as well, you can grasp detailed sources and catch the initial movement of trends. I work diligently to grasp the overall picture of the market (crime scene?) by marking pages on DefiLlama like this.

🕵️‍♂️ Info Gathering Routine: What I'm Watching

Even if told to "follow skilled traders," you don't know who is real. Start by "viewing news comprehensively." I subscribe to Telegram channels that summarize news and current events and digest them as a morning routine. If there is a topic that catches my interest, the background investigation begins. Official websites, documents, statements from reliable fund managers... I steadily connect these dots.

▼ Recommended Info Sources (DeFi Specialized)

• Odaily: Strong news media for DeFi
• Stable Watch: Go here for stablecoin relations
• SosoValue / Certik Skynet: Convenient for news gathering
• Rekt.News: A summary of "incidents" like hacks (I personally love this)

🕵️‍♂️ Method for Excavating Unknown Projects: AI and Guts

When you want to find minor treasure projects, utilize tools like Xhunt or accounts like AresLabs where you can track who followed whom.

Using these, I investigate with "AI and Guts" in the end. Speaking of ratios, it's 20% AI, 30% Guts.

▼ My Project Interrogation (Check) List

• What problem does it solve? Is the method appropriate?
• Is that chain/sector likely to become popular?
• Is there a technological advantage? What is the development speed?
• Is there a "winning strategy" against competitors?
• Does the token issuance make sense? (This is important!)

Narrowing down fields is also important. I organize them by category as shown below and dig deep only into the ones that look interesting.

With this decision, the funds for the ¥100k project have temporarily evacuated to the shelter known as $USDC. Unlike the bubble period where reports of explosive profits fly around, the coming period might be a "quiet, boring, and lonely battle."

However, I declare this. The turning point of airdrop activity lies exactly in this muddy time. Rather than locking funds continuously without thinking, the flexibility to open an umbrella according to the market weather, or to secretly sow seeds, is the only key to turning this 100,000 yen into 1 million or 10 million yen.

Please try starting even just one of the things introduced today, like "grassroots research" or "free tasks." Now that the market has fallen silent and many people have taken their eyes off the charts, it is the greatest chance to overtake your rivals.

【Next Time Preview】 How are the "seeds" I planted this time doing? Or have I found a new "stimulus check project" and charged in...? Let's survive properly and meet again in the next report!