2026 Market Outlook: Return to Real Demand and "The Great Filtering"

2026 Market Outlook: Return to Real Demand and What Lies Beyond "The Great Filtering"

After a turbulent 2025, we now stand before a reality that is both cold and full of hope. The theme for 2026 goes beyond mere "infrastructure building"; it is an era of selection defined by "Survival of the Fittest." The phase where "everything goes up" has officially ended.

In this report, based on proprietary data analysis, we detail the "5 Mega Trends" where capital should be concentrated in 2026, as well as the risk assets that will exit the market.

DeFi (Decentralized Finance) is entering a renaissance, but it is not a replay of the speculative Yield Farming of the past.

• Dismantling CEXs and the Rise of the "Hyperliquid" Model: The role previously played by Centralized Exchanges (CEXs) is being replaced by on-chain liquidity layers. The dominance of high-performance chains like Hyperliquid symbolizes this shift. In 2026, many small-to-mid-sized CEXs and FinTech apps will abandon maintaining their own ledgers and adopt these high-performance chains as their backend. Users will transition to utilizing on-chain liquidity without even realizing it.
• "Options as Infrastructure": Following the widespread adoption of Perpetual Futures (Perps), options trading will be integrated into the backend as DeFi’s "yield generation engine." A structure that monetizes volatility itself will become established at the protocol level.

despite concerns about an AI bubble, the intersection of Crypto and AI has entered a phase of "Real Demand."

• "Data Fueling" for Robotics: The biggest bottleneck for the humanoid robot industry, which is growing rapidly toward the 2050s, is "real-world training data." The model where users worldwide provide sensor and motion data via DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) in exchange for rewards will become the sole fuel for AI evolution.
• Identity War (Proof of Personhood): As AI-generated content floods the web, "Proof of Personhood" via Worldcoin or ZK (Zero-Knowledge) technology will become essential web infrastructure. This is not just an investment theme but a critical issue regarding the survival of digital society.

The value of RWAs will no longer be judged by Total Value Locked (TVL), but by "how much they move."

• 24/7 Collateral Utility: Bonds simply placed on a blockchain have no value. The deciding factor will be "Composability," where tokenized US Treasuries or MMFs function instantly as collateral within DeFi for liquidation and settlement.
• Privacy for Institutions: With the full-scale entry of banks, the demand for "Confidential Computing" and compliant layers that do not disclose everything publicly will explode.

Prediction Markets, which broke out in 2025, have evolved from a niche playground into a "Financial Layer" for trading global trends.

• Acceleration of Information: In markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, arbitrage bots reflect the "truth" in prices faster than news media. All specialized knowledge becomes a monetizable asset, fundamentally changing how information is transmitted.

The harshest reality investors must face is that "many existing projects will become worthless."

• Collapse of the VC Model & PMF: The "Spray-and-pray" venture investment model is dysfunctional. Protocols without clear PMF (Product-Market Fit) and sustainable cash flow will be weeded out of the market in 2026.
• Capital Rotation from Memes: Capital will flee the meme coin market, which created temporary mania, and return to projects that distribute "Revenue" and "Rights" to token holders.

Conclusion: 2026 Investment Strategy

The market structure of 2026 can be summarized in one phrase: "Selection by Utility."

Against the backdrop of the US market where legal uncertainties have been cleared (post-FIT21), institutional investors will select only the "authentic" assets. Our recommended stance is as follows:

1. Ride the Infrastructure Winners: Overwhelming liquidity layers supporting real demand transactions, such as Hyperliquid and Solana.
2. Focus on Real Demand Sectors: Protocols with external revenue, such as "Data for AI" or "RWAs as Financial Collateral."
3. Eliminate Worthless Assets: Unwind positions (or short) in old-generation governance tokens that generate no cash flow and altcoins lacking PMF.

The crypto industry as a whole will win, but the roster of players will change drastically. We strongly recommend filtering out the noise and building a portfolio based on infrastructure and real utility.